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Alan Alger's midweek preview

Alan Alger from the league sponsors picks his way through a tricky midweek programme in the Blue Square Premier and FA Trophy.

On Tuesday the pre-season favourites for the Blue Square Premier host the current odds-on favourites for the title. The majority of a near capacity attendance at Kenilworth Road will be hoping that Luton (12/1 for the Blue Square Premier) can make up ground on opponents Oxford United (leaders and the 8/13 favourites for the title). It may well be too late in terms of winning the league, but The Hatters need to maintain their play-off push at the very least. The gap between the two sides before Tuesday's match is eleven points. Richard Money will be eyeing up fourth (or fifth spot) for his side as a matter of priority and despite the occasional setback no team has been allowed to make that section of the table their own. Luton are being quoted at 100/30 to gain promotion by any means that roughly equates as just under 3/1 to win the play-off final when we take away their chance of winning the league outright. A genuine three way battle for the title is a minor hope for the rest of the season, but it's more likely to include the current top three of Oxford, Stevenage and York City. Despite winning only once in five home matches against the top seven in the table, Money's side are slight favourites for this match. We go 11/8 for a home win, 9/4 for a draw and offer an Oxford victory at 9/5. It's safe to say that barring their trip to Stevenage in late March, this is the biggest price that Oxford will be all season. The exception will be if they tie up the league nice and early and decide to play a weak team in one of their last few fixtures. A win here would help that become reality because I think that Chris Wilder's team have a favourable run-in. The type of fixture you want at the end of the season is a home match against a team in mid-table with little to play for at either end. Between now and the end of the season Oxford have five or six such fixtures starting with Histon next Saturday. The U's then welcome Kidderminster, Wrexham, Cambridge, Hayes & Yeading and Salisbury to the Kassam before the end of April. Some of them may have outside hopes of the play-offs but I'd expect Wilder's team to secure at least 12 points from a possible 18 in those matches. Contrast that with Luton who are still to negotiate trips to five of the top eight in the table.

York City are yet to travel to three of the top eight teams, their nine game winning run was ended by Histon last week. The pitfalls of football betting were in stark evidence as I had failed to back them for any of the previous nine matches but thought they were good value to rack up a tenth at the Cambridgeshire outfit. I listened in to the last twenty minutes on BBC York's online service and it never looked like they would find the extra gear to beat their hosts. All credit to Histon for managing to stop The Minstermen's runaway train which got back on the rails with a win at Kettering on Saturday. It just goes to show how resilient Stevenage and Oxford have been that there could still be a gap between those teams after such a prolific period for Martin Foyle's side. York's midweek game has been postponed due to the FA Trophy giving Stevenage a perfect chance to seize on any slip ups by Oxford just down the road in neighbouring Bedfordshire. Graham Westley was a fully deserving recipient of the January 'manager of the month' award and I'll be looking forward to presenting him with the Champagne and the trophy before his side's clash with Mansfield. Stevenage are favourites for the game at 8/11 and it's clear to see why, if anything, that should be a little shorter. Visitors Mansfield have struggled to hit any kind of rhythm and possess very poor statistics when playing away to the better teams in the division. In eight away games against teams in the top half of the table The Stags have won just two, losing the other six. They've failed to score in three of those matches and only kept a clean sheet once. Boro's record at Broadhall Way is almost immaculate and I expect a tough evening for David Holdsworth's team. A 2-0 home win is available at 6/1 and that would be my call. Stevenage had the tightest defence in the division conceding just 0.72 goals per game, keeping clean-sheets in nearly 50% of their matches.

If results go their way Rushden & Diamonds can move up to fourth in the table. That's a great achievement from manager Justin Edinburgh and his squad. They're 8/15 favourites at home to Eastbourne Borough on Tuesday. Amazingly Borough have lost just two of their last ten games in the league but have dropped to 19th in the table because of a so many drawn matches. Rushden are on an unbeaten run of five, but I could fancy the draw here at 13/5 as the pressure could tell on the Diamonds. Hayes & Yeading host hapless Grays and the Middlesex side are the shortest price of the night to win this at 1/2. Ebbsfleet are in superb form and have lifted themselves out of the relegation zone in recent weeks but their price of 6/5 looks restrictive against a tough to beat Histon outfit. I'd favour another draw here at 23/10. Wrexham disappointed again on Saturday as they undone all their recent hard work with a defeat at Eastbourne. They are 4/5 to bounce back at home to Tamworth, who have a few big scalps already this season. There are two games in the FA Trophy and I like the look of extra-time in the Gateshead versus Barrow replay, a draw is 23/10. I've saved the best bet for last and I think that Salisbury should confirm their tag as 6/5 home favourites against a Cambridge United side that are in freefall in the league. Martin Ling's team lost their sixth straight Blue Square Premier match on Saturday and haven't found the net in over 300 minutes of football.