Elementary win for Holmes' men

Saturday January 26, 2008

Cambridge United v Altrincham

Prices correct at time of writing (1.30pm, Wednesday January 23, 2004).

Home 1/2 Draw 13/5 Away 5/1

I expect this to be another home win and another three points for Cambridge. Altrincham have done quite well in recent weeks and have crept out of the relegation zone but would have been disappointed last week to have let a two-goal lead slip against York. But if you'd have offered them a point beforehand it's probably one they would have taken, especially with the other results.

Cambridge beat Droylsden 5-0 on Tuesday night and I expect them to be amongst the goals again against Altrincham. I think the Robins will put up a fight but I don't think they'll get anything from the game. It would be a surprise for me if they did. It's Cambridge to win but probably by only one or two goals, not the five they put past Droylsden.

Verdict: Home win

Droylsden v Kidderminster Harriers

Home 11/4 Draw 23/10 Away 5/6

I fancy Kidderminster to get a win but have a funny feeling it will end in a draw. I don't think the Harriers will be beaten and I think the value here could be 23/10 on the draw. Droylsden have been disappointing in their run-of-the-mill matches. What's frightening for them is that at home they've beaten teams such as Forest Green and Oxford, but with Kidderminster a bit inconsistent away from home, I expect a point apiece here at the Butcher's Arms.

Verdict: Draw

Ebbsfleet United v Burton Albion

Home 6/4 Draw 11/5 Away 6/4

Ebbsfleet have been one of the stories of the season both on and off the field. When you look at the prices 6/4 looks quite good for a home win until you consider Burton's unbeaten away record, which has included six wins and seven draws. I think the value play here is the draw because 11/5 is the biggest price of the three. Any of the results are possible here, but I'm going for a stalemate and a draw at 11/5.

Verdict: Draw

Forest Green Rovers v Exeter City

Home 5/4 Draw 9/4 Away 7/4

Forest Green caused a shock by beating the leaders Aldershot 1-0 away from home last weekend and have also been boosted by the news that striker Stuart Fleetwood has turned down a move to League One outfit Crewe. Forest Green have such a good home record with seven victories and I just think the crowd will be up for this one following the events of the last week. Rovers' win over Aldershot was a really big boost for the club and with the Fleetwood news as well, I'm going for a home win.

Verdict: Home win

Northwich Victoria v Halifax Town

Home 13/8 Draw 11/5 Away 11/8

Northwich have picked up in recent weeks and take on Halifax, whose away record is dreadful with nine defeats. That's why 13/8 on Northwich looks the bet here. It's hard to look at the home side and say 'I should back them,' because they have had eight defeats at home this season. But they have picked up and have got a chance against the Shaymen. If they are going to stage a Houdini effort, this is one of those matches they'll be earmarking as a big chance. The Vics are three points above Stafford and Droylsden and are no longer bottom. If they can win this game, there's a bit of light for them. Northwich to win for me.

Verdict: Home win

Oxford United v Grays Athletic

Home 5/4 Draw 11/5 Away 9/5

Can it get any worse for Oxford? I fear not. Realistically, this should be a hard game for them but I do think 5/4 Oxford is a great price. I'm sure that the U's are better than their 15th place in the table suggests. They've not won enough games at home this season but I'm going to take them to get a home win this weekend and give them a welcome boost against a Grays side who have done quite well but have slightly gone off the boil recently.

Verdict: Home win

Rushden & Diamonds v Weymouth

Home 4/5 Draw 9/4 Away 3/1

I think home advantage will come very much into the frame here and I'm going to go for another win for the hosts. Rushden at 4/5 look a good thing and I think they'll be one of my bets of the weekend. Weymouth are teetering at the moment and if they hadn't had that victory against Oxford they would only be one point above Altrincham. That was one of the results of the season for them. But I don't think they'll repeat it at Rushden, it's a home win.

Verdict: Home win

Stafford Rangers v Salisbury City

Home 9/4 Draw 9/4 Away Evens

I looked at this one and thought 'I wonder what odds-on price Salisbury will be,' and I must admit I'm actually pleasantly surprised to see them quoted at even money. I really thought they should be odds-on for this fixture. Stafford haven't won at home, with four draws and nine defeats. They've been very poor and are the lowest scorers in the Blue Square Premier at home. Bottom-of-the-table Droylsden have scored double the amount of goals at home than Stafford have this season. It's incredible that you can still get even money on Salisbury. When you look at the form chart Salisbury have picked up 12 points from their last six games so this is one of the best bets of the year so far. Salisbury to beat Stafford, it's a 5-star nap for me.

Verdict: Away win

Woking v Crawley Town

Home 6/4 Draw 11/5 Away 6/4

This is another match in which I expect Woking to come out on top. Gradually they have come into a bit of form, the Woking games are just low scoring. There's hardly been any goals in Woking's home matches this season. But I'm going to take them to narrowly win again against Crawley. I'm going to go for a 1-0 win to Woking (13/2) and will save on the 0-0 (7/1). But I think the bet in this match is definitely 0 or 1 goals at 9/4.

Verdict: Home win

York City v Aldershot Town

Home 17/10 Draw 9/4 Away 13/10

I think York are very fairly priced at 17/10 to beat Aldershot. The Shots will still be league leaders whatever happens this weekend but they know that defeat by Forest Green will just have given the others a chance. York came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2 with Altrincham last weekend and also had a good FA Trophy win. I'm going to take a chance at the price as I think 17/10 on York is over the odds. Aldershot are vulnerable, they are a good side but whether or not they win the Blue Square Premier will depend on how they do in matches such as this one and I just think at the price, York are good value at 17/10.

Verdict: Home win

Angus Loughran Best Bets

Northwich 13/8

Rushden 4/5

Woking v Crawley 0 or 1 goals 9/4

Banker Bet Salisbury Evens