Stafford Rangers face Farsley Celtic at Marston Road on Saturday

Stafford eye Great Escape

Saturday March 1, 2008

Grays Athletic v Torquay United (Kick-off 1pm)

Prices correct at time of writing (4pm, Wednesday February 27, 2008).

Home 5/2 Draw 9/4 Away 10/11

Grays are outsiders for the game even though they're on their own patch. Owner Mick Woodward has taken the reins from departing boss Justin Edinburgh and has employed two player-coaches to help him in the dug out. You could say that Grays' season is over, they're 17 points off the play-offs and 16 off relegation. Their form is patchy - three wins, three draws and three losses in their last nine matches but if you look at the wins they did achieve, they were against Aldershot, Forest Green and Cambridge. Torquay really should have closed the gap to leaders Aldershot to three points in midweek but they failed to captailise on Chris Zebroski's early goal against Altrincham and ended up drawing the game 1-1. Torquay are the favourites for this game but I don't know if many punters will be trusting them at odds-on after that Altrincham result. They are almost guaranteed a play-off spot but that will be little consolation after their early-season form. Torquay have only lost one in their last nine but they've possibly had too many draws. They have only scored more than one goal in one of those nine games. The draw is probably the best bet.

Verdict: Draw

Aldershot Town v Kidderminster Harriers

Home 4/9 Draw 11/4 Away 11/2

By the time they take to the field Aldershot will know exactly how Torquay have fared in their match against Grays and they are the strong favourites to beat Kiddersminster. Aldershot are unbeaten in their last four games, with three wins and a draw. They have lost three of their last nine league games and are flying in all three non-league competitions and are only 15/2 to complete a non-league treble, which would be unprecedented. Kidderminster are similar to Grays in that they're 17 points off the play-offs and 16 off relegation so you could say their season ended when they went out of the Setanta Shield in midweek. The Harriers have only one win in their last seven league games and they've only scored one goal in their last four so I can't see beyond Aldershot in this one.

Verdict: Home win

Burton Albion v Histon

Home 4/5 Draw 9/4 Away 3/1

Burton are the favourites and are the home team. They went out of the FA Trophy in midweek after their replay against Ebbsfleet and they slipped out of the play-offs places because they didn't play a league fixture last weekend. Albion have lost their last three away games in the league after being unbeaten away from home and they are unbeaten in their last five home games - 4 wins and a draw - so their home form has picked up as their away from has dropped off. Histon are the outsiders. They are ninth in the table, seven points off the play-offs so they will still be hoping for a play-off spot but they've had five defeats in their last 10 games so it's pretty inconsistent form. Histon struggled to a 3-3 draw against Stafford at home on Tuesday night in a game they should have won to keep their play-off hopes alive. I think Burton are the call.

Verdict: Home win

Cambridge United v York City

Home 4/5 Draw 9/4 Away 3/1

I don't think Jimmy Quinn will be saying that he's given up on top place in the Blue Square Premier, but if you look at the stats I think they're too far behind now. Cambridge moved into third place after a good win against Forest Green. They've had five wins and only one defeat in their last seven matches, which has put them in a much better position than their fellow play-off contenders. York are 11th in the Blue Square Premier, 12 points off the play-offs and have only a very slim hope of finishing in the top five but it's safe to say the relegation fears of earlier in the season are over. York have an FA Trophy semi-final to look forward to and they might have one eye on that. The Minstermen have only won two of their last six matches and I can see Cambridge winning this.

Verdict: Home win

Exeter City v Altrincham

Home 2/5 Draw 11/4 Away 13/2

Exeter are in fifth, which is the last play-off place and they leap-frogged Burton at the weekend. The Grecians are in great form and are unbeaten in their last eight games with five wins and three draws, despite losing arguably their best player, Jamie Mackie, just after Christmas. They have only lost one of their last 13 matches. Altrincham are the outsiders but they got a great 1-1 draw at Torquay in midweek and moved into 19th place - the highest they've been all season. They've probably got high hopes of escaping relegation and they've only had two defeats in their last eight matches. However, I think Exeter in the form they're in will just edge this game.

Verdict: Homw win

Forest Green Rovers v Oxford United

Home 11/10 Draw 9/4 Away 2/1

Oxford have had a disappointing season. The U's are 15 points off the play-offs and 18 off relegation and will be looking to consolidate for next season with boss Darren Patterson getting to grips with his squad. United have lost five of their last nine games but have won their last two without conceding. If Forest Green had beaten Cambridge last weekend they would have really been in with a shout of the play-offs but dropped to eighth with that defeat, seven points off the play-offs. They have an outside chance of the play-offs but Stuart Fleetwood's goals have all-but dried up and that was the thing that was keeping them up there. They've only had one win in their last six. I think the draw is the best bet here and it could be a low-scoring affair.

Verdict: Draw

Halifax Town v Weymouth

Home Evens Draw 9/4 Away 9/4

Halifax are 18th in the table and just eight points off relegation. They've only had one win in their last 11 matches and that's real relegation form considering they were as high as 10th earlier in the season. The Shaymen are the evens favourites for this game. Weymouth are in very poor form at the moment. John Hollins has taken over a team in real trouble on and off the pitch and they've only one win in their last 13 matches so it's a battle of two teams in poor form. I'd have to go for Halifax at evens to win just because they are at home.

Verdict: Home win

Northwich Victoria v Ebbsfleet United

Home 9/4 Draw 9/4 Away Evens

If Northwich can win this game they'll be hoping to escape relegation considering the poor form of the teams above them. The Vics are 23rd, nine points from safety with only one win in their last eight matches but that win did come last weekend at Woking so they will be hoping to build on that result. However, Northwich are the outsiders even though they are at home. Ebbsfleet are 10th, nine points off the play-offs. They have a slim hope of promotion and have an FA Trophy semi-final to look forward to after getting past Burton in midweek. They lost 3-1 at Torquay the week before but that was their first defeat in eight league matches. I can see Ebbsfleet possibly just edging this game although the draw shouldn't be discounted.

Verdict: Away win

Rushden & Diamonds v Woking

Home 10/11 Draw 9/4 Away 5/2

Woking are in 15th spot, which on the face of it is a great achievement for Frank Gray and his young team although their recent form has left a lot to be desired and they lost to fellow relegation contenders Farsley and Northwich. They should be safe as they are 15 points off the drop. Rushden are the odds-on favourites on their home ground. They're through to the Setanta Shield area semis after a midweek win against Kidderminster. They are 13 points off relegation with no hope of the play-offs so their only realistic hope of success is in the Setanta Shield. On current form I have to go for Rushden.

Verdict: Home win

Salisbury City v Droylsden

Home 4/11 Draw 3/1 Away 13/2

Salisbury won't be giving up on the play-offs as they are only six points adrift. They are unbeaten in 11 matches and this is pretty much an easy tie on paper but then again Salisbury have struggled against the bottom teams so I can't see this being a walkover. Droylsden are all but relegated with 10 defeats and a win in their last 11 matches. I'll probably take Salisbury but I don't think it will be a formality.

Verdict: Home win

Stafford Rangers v Farsley Celtic

Home 11/10 Draw 9/4 Away 2/1

This is a huge game for Stafford. If they win this I think they can really build on it and try and escape relegation but if they lose I would say they are definitely down. Steve Bull has taken over the reins and they are unbeaten in four games with two wins and two draws so they go into this match in good form. Celtic are fourth-from-bottom and one place above Stafford, although they are seven points clear of their relegation rivals. Farsley have only one win in their last nine matches. I think Stafford on their recent form are a great bet to win this home clash.

Verdict: Home win

Stevenage Borough v Crawley Town

Home 5/6 Draw 23/10 Away 11/4

Stevenage really need to get their season back on track otherwise they could slip out of the play-offs altogether. They have Burton a point and a place behind them in sixth, and Albion have a game in hand. Crawley are really struggling and went out of the Setanta Shield in midweek with an extra-time thumping from league leaders Aldershot. They are too far from the play-offs, but just about safe from relegation and without a win in three league matches. Before that they did have a run of four wins so they are capable of causing an upset. I'm tempted to back Stevenage here at odds-on but I think maybe the best play is the draw.

Verdict: Draw

Best Bets

Stafford 11/10

Stevenage Borough v Crawley Town Draw 23/10

Banker Bet

Cambridge United 4/5